That’s because economic growth can be correlated with environmental degradation, while protecting the environment is sometimes correlated with greater poverty. However, those correlations don’t prove cause and effect. The only previous study analyzing causality, based on an area in Mexico that had instituted CCTs, supported the traditional view. There, as people got more money, some of them may have more cleared land for cattle to raise for meat, Ferraro says.
这是因为经济增长可能与环境恶化有关，而保护环境有时与贫困恶化有关。然而，这些相关性并不能证明因果关系。先前唯一的一项基于墨西哥某个地区的因果关系分析研究支持传统观点。费拉罗说，在那里，随着人们得到更多的钱，他们中的一些人可能会需要更多的空地用于牲畜。
Last year marked the third year in a row of that Indonesia’s bleak rate of deforestation has slowed in pace. One reason for the turnaround may be the country’s antipoverty program.
去年是印尼森林砍伐率连续第三年下降。转变的一个原因可能是该国的脱贫计划。
In 2007, Indonesia started phasing in program that gives money to its poorest residents under certain conditions, such as requiring people to keep kids in school or get regular medical care. Called conditional cash transfers or CCTs, these social assistance programs are designed to reduce inequality and break the cycle of poverty. They’re already used in dozens of countries worldwide. In Indonesia, the program has provided enough food and medicine to substantially reduce severe growth problems among children.
2007年，印度尼西亚开始逐步实施一项计划，在某些条件下向最贫困的居民提供资金，例如要求人们让孩子上学或定期接受医疗。这些社会援助项目被称为有条件现金转移（CCTs），旨在减少不平等，打破贫困循环。它们已经在全世界几十个国家使用。在印度尼西亚，该项目提供了足够的食物和药品，大大减少了儿童生长中的严重问题。
But CCT programs don’t generally consider effects on the environment. In fact, poverty alleviation and environmental protection are often viewed as conflicting goals, says Paul Ferraro, an economist at Johns Hopkins University.
但CCT项目一般不考虑对环境的影响。约翰霍普金斯大学（Johns Hopkins University）经济学家保罗费拉罗（Paul Ferraro）表示，事实上，扶贫和环境保护常常被视为相互冲突的目标。
Ferraro analyzed satellite data showing annual forest loss from 2008 to 2012-including during Indonesia’s phase-in of the antipoverty program-in 7, 468 forested villages across 15 provinces and multiple islands. The duo separated the effects of the CCT program on forest loss from other factors, like weather and macroeconomic changes, which were also affecting forest loss. With that, “we see that the program is associated with a 30 percent reduction in deforestation,” Ferraro says.
费拉罗分析了卫星数据，显示从2008年到2012年，印尼在15个省和多个岛屿的7468个森林村庄实施脱贫计划期间，每年都有森林流失。两人把CCT计划对森林损失的影响与其他因素分开，如天气和宏观经济变化，这些因素也影响森林损失。费拉罗说：“我们看到，这项计划与森林砍伐有关，导致了森林减少30%。”
That’s likely because the rural poor are using the money as makeshift insurance policies against inclement weather, Ferraro says. Typically, if rains are delayed, people may clear land to plant more rice to supplement their harvests. With the CCTs, individuals instead can use the money to supplement their harvests.
费拉罗说，这很可能是因为农村贫困人口把这些钱用作应对恶劣天气的临时保险。通常，如果降雨推迟，人们可能会清理土地种植更多的水稻，以补充他们的收成。有了CCT，个人可以用这笔钱来补充他们的收成。
Such programs do not have to negatively affect the environment, though. Ferraro wanted to see if Indonesia’s poverty-alleviation program was affecting deforestation. Indonesia has the third-largest area of tropical forest in the world and one of the highest deforestation rates.
不过，这样的项目不一定会对环境产生负面影响。费拉罗想知道印尼的扶贫计划是否影响到森林砍伐。印度尼西亚拥有世界第三大热带森林面积，也是森林砍伐率最高的国家之一。
Whether this research translates elsewhere is anybody’s guess. Ferraro suggests the importance of growing rice and market access. And regardless of transferability, the study shows that what’s good for people may also be good for the value of the avoided deforestation just for carbon dioxide emissions alone is more than the program costs.
这项研究是否能在其它地方得到推广还不得而知。费拉罗建议种植水稻和市场准入的重要性。不管可转让性如何，这项研究表明，对人们有益的东西也可能有益于避免砍伐森林的价值，仅仅是二氧化碳的排放就超过了项目成本。
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